With 17 million inhabitants, Beijing is China’s second largest urban area. In less than a month, the Imperial City will host the XXIX Summer Olympic Games, and both the People’s Republic of China and the City’s government are making sure the most viewed planetary event will be a success. Even the air pollution that has been plaguing the city will be taken care of ($17 billion has been spent to this effect), even if it means forbidding car access for a full month. Athletes with asthma will be able to compete. China’s efforts to organize a green event have become incompatible with the resources required for a smooth event of this magnitude. Actually, Beijing Summer Olympic Games may enter history as the most environmentally unfriendly event in Olympic history. But this is only a “historical detail” in comparison to what the future may hold for this megalopolis.

Beijing’s population has more than doubled since the 1999 census and the 16 million mark – an objective set for 2010 – was already surpassed by the end of 2007. Beijing officials announced it would limit the city’s population to 18 million by 2020, an objective only achievable if a large portion of the “liudong renkou” – the working migrants or floating population numbering 4.5 million – is asked to leave (many believe the municipality’s population has been inflated to face the labor demand generated by the Olympic Games). Even though the Beijing munical government succeeds in controlling its population, experts agree that won’t be enough. China’s best-known environmentalist, Dai Quing believes “within a generation this city would cease to exist”! What might precipitate Beijing’s fall is not air pollution or sand storms but its chronic lack of water.

Severe climate change has been affecting the Chinese capital. Historically, it has been enjoying 25.1 inches of precipitation per year (compared to LA’s 15.1 or Seattle’s 37.1). The 8.14 inches of rain for the first 6 months of 2008 represent a 10 year rainfall record (70 percent more than 1998-2007 average levels and 90 percent more than a year ago) and even if more is expected – 60% of the region’s precipitation occurs during the months of July and August – this won’t be enough to meet Beijing’s present and future water demand. Canadian public interest research group Probe International’s latest report on Beijing water needs notes that “200 or so rivers and streams are drying up and many of the city’s reservoirs are nearly empty. More than two-thirds of the city’s water supply now comes from groundwater, extracted some 1,000 metres (3,280 ft) or more underground”.

htAntoaneta Bezlova’s article (ISP) offers a chilling picture of Beijing’s future. To meet the city’s growing needs, the PRC is diverting water from the Yellow river 250 miles away bringing an additional 150 million cubic meters of water (cmw). TheSouth-to-North Water Transfer Project is much more ambitious and controversial. It consists of three routes, each requiring dams, tunnels and canals. The longest is 800 miles long – from Taocha Gate to Tunchenghu in Beijing – adding an extra 9.5 billion cmw to the city and its province. All these efforts are coming at a high cost as water is being driven away from provinces that are already suffering from water shortages. The Yangtze river – China’s longest – supplies water to all central China down to Shanghai, which is expanding faster than Beijing. The proponents of this project argue it will distribute water more evenly amongst and accordingly to the provinces’ needs as well as provide energy to multiple areas. The financial cost is estimated at $60+ billion. Some experts believe it is not enough to save Beijing. Grainne Ryder, policy director at Probe International predicts that the Chinese capital will run out of water in five to 10 years and would be faced with the difficult choices of moving the capital entirely or shutting down industries and resettling part of its population.

Beijing is probably the most critically affected megalopolis in the world, but not the only one. Water shortages are pushing many governments to make very difficult decisions, some seen as mismanagement. In Catalonia, Spain, while reservoirs levels hit a record low down to 20% of their storage capacity last May, Barcelona had to ship in water from France and other parts of Spain at a cost of $80m. In California, in May as well, the salmon season was called off. Many experts believe the main reason behind the Sacramento River’s collapse is increased pumping of freshwater from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to farmers and water districts in the Central Valley and Southern California. Rightfully, Los Angeles received only 3.5 inches of rain in 2007, and the heavy rain that poured down earlier this year won’t make up for the previous dry years. The question is on everybody’s mind: what will happen if California face another dry winter? Georgia, Alabama and Florida have been on a tri-state water war that has escalated earlier this year when clean water became scarce and cattle herds had to be contained to save several species of mussels and sturgeon. How about Africa, India, and other parts of the world that are experiencing high precipitation and/ or long droughts? We often take our tap water for granted. It is time we realize how precious this resource is and start changing the way we live now. Tomorrow might be too late. No, tomorrow will be too late.

PS: I have not addressed water pollution on this post, which is another critical factor in clean and potable water availability. It’ll come next.

Sources:
IPS – Antoaneta Bezlova: CHINA: ‘Within a Generation Beijing Will Cease to Exist
China Post – Beijing population tops 16 mil. 2 years early
China.org.cn – Beijing sees highest rainfall in 10 years
PRC Ministery of Water – The South to North Water Transfer Project
Also, using keywords [China, Beijing, drought, water, weather, population census, environment] on previous cited web sites as well as worldwatch.org and China Daily.

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