AFTER BALI: THE ROAD AHEAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Hosted by the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco on February 7th, 2008.

I thought it would be interesting to hear what three distinctive voices representing the political, business and scientific spheres had to say about the Bali talks. I was particularly curious to see how the policy maker (in charge amongst other to define, coordinate, implement US environmental policy) would answer when facing the hard reality as exposed by a renown and respected scientist.

The panel:

AMB. RENO L. HARNISH III, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs

DIANA FARRELL, Director, McKinsey Global Institute

KEN CALDEIRA, Scientist, Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology

Just a confirmation. We are doomed for another year. I know you knew. I knew. What to expect? As if we needed to be remembered again how this administration places the fight against climate change on its agenda! It is quite pathetic, and the appointment of the former ambassador to Azerbaijan to co-head the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (part of the US delegation in Bali) speaks a lot about Bush’s commitment to negotiating and stalling rather than understanding and taking action. Reno Harnish’s “We do more than most European countries” was so appalling. Which ones? Germany? No. France? No. England? No. And his “18 billions” investment in clean technologies sounded like smoke in the air (compared to 20 times that figure for fossil fuels) especially in lights of the administration’s opposition to renew the federal production tax credit (PTC) for wind, geothermal, and biomass and the investment tax credit (ITC) for solar.

If there is one community policy makers should listen to more often, it is the science community. Dr. Ken Caldeira is not very different from others who have been warning us of the danger of global warming and the depletion of our natural resources, except that he is a prime witness of the consequences of our governments’ inability to agree and act rapidly to salvage what is left to save. Of course no one wants to hear the gloomiest scenario, and everyone is well aware of the difficulties to agreeing on CO2 emission reduction when everyone is fighting stay competitive in a volatile economy. Dr. Caldeira sees what Harnish and, to a lesser degree Farrell failed to see: it’ll be harder to compete in an economy ecologically devastated. “The pace at which our ecosystems and natural resources are deteriorating is quicker than any prevision that has been made” should not be ignored.

Diana Farrell had some very interesting things to say about the energy needs of China and India and their growing contribution to CO2 emissions as well as the business opportunity of dealing with climate change, although she felt a bit at odd between two distant realities, trying hard to be neutral. She stressed on the importance of transferring clean technologies, which is the fastest way to develop them and bring them to market. Hopefully, we will not repeat the mistakes done by the drug companies that have attached unaffordable tag price to their technologies. As Vinod Khoslar repeatedly said it, India and China need to be able to afford clean technologies that would have been developed elsewhere.

In times of elections and political debates, if one to be picked a winner based on who was the most solicited when the conference ended, I feel relieved it was Ken Caldeira.

Note: I’ve been told this conference was going to be broadcasted on KQED. I just do not know when, and kqed.org is not showing any scheduling. As soon as I know, I’ll be posting it on green-age.org.

Quotes from the conference:

“It’s taking too long” Ken Caldeira on Bali and other “talks” and agreements.

“The Arctic and coral reefs will disappear if we do not bring to zero our CO2 emission. But perhaps we do not need them.” Ken Caldeira

“There will be sacrifices. What kind? 2 to 3% of GDP, similar to what England had lost when they abolished slavery during the Industrial Revolution.” Ken Caldeira

“We have invested 18 billion dollars in clean technologies” Reno L. Harnish III

“The world is a very messy place and we need to deal with these issues globally” Diana Farrell on climate change and poverty

“The biggest opportunity to reduce CO2 emission is in the residential sector” Diana Farrell

“There will be winners and there will be losers” Diana Farrell on the consequences of climate change and the solutions needed to prevent further damage on the environment.

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